Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 30.717296 33.746947 37.182309 41.422020 46.595962 52.821060 61.070864
2025-10-05 27.636704 31.785887 36.918288 43.955704 53.761827 67.701460 90.822600
2025-10-12 24.898735 29.336004 35.090532 43.479383 56.192676 76.529061 117.185492
2025-10-19 23.238960 27.916250 34.222017 43.910857 59.764977 88.301873 159.260582
2025-10-26 22.248294 27.206680 34.138811 45.351094 65.215471 106.117910 243.862803
2025-11-02 21.119056 26.155875 33.385429 45.537835 68.465984 121.541837 372.090812
2025-11-09 19.744807 24.623770 31.728994 43.934618 67.827601 127.366989 495.268107
2025-11-16 18.554820 23.263924 30.199577 42.320093 66.765540 131.633865 664.765325
2025-11-23 18.055093 22.868244 30.111674 43.200702 71.238104 156.532272 2079.130676
2025-11-30 17.405681 22.199124 29.521027 43.067790 73.396504 176.397340 307163.614270
2025-12-07 16.741035 21.462946 28.757198 42.499808 74.362434 193.261119 NaN
2025-12-14 15.858958 20.350272 27.301770 40.439962 71.089884 187.464711 NaN
2025-12-21 15.167599 19.603237 26.576648 40.098985 73.308685 220.408528 NaN
2025-12-28 14.959234 19.601200 27.123188 42.475936 84.519074 363.228300 NaN
2026-01-04 14.343980 18.905258 26.393497 42.028445 87.098127 468.790820 NaN
2026-01-11 13.914597 18.473435 26.081214 42.434661 92.930912 747.548882 NaN
2026-01-18 13.648849 18.283992 26.178301 43.789566 103.487434 2184.545121 NaN
2026-01-25 13.259526 17.863594 25.807612 43.965094 109.631942 20012.901622 NaN
2026-02-01 12.707151 17.141714 24.816203 42.457038 107.255160 NaN NaN
2026-02-08 12.193597 16.462233 23.863328 40.935809 104.263428 NaN NaN
2026-02-15 11.982159 16.278726 23.837321 41.765848 113.815555 NaN NaN
2026-02-22 11.682686 15.930067 23.466083 41.640618 118.440619 NaN NaN
2026-03-01 11.361580 15.529765 22.967232 41.105265 120.466616 NaN NaN